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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 201835
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
235 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep upper level low pressure will move slowly east across WV
tonight and through the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday, keeping
unsettled weather around through the rest of weekend. Much of
the time from late Sunday into mid week will be dry. However, a
very small chance of showers exists almost every day as a weak
front will drop down during the middle of the week and could
linger near PA for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wind has picked up very nicely, with dewpoints crashing over the
Laurels and at UNV. AOO still arnd 40F dewpoint, but they may
drop soon, too.

Clearing has come to much of C PA due to the passage of a short
wave trough. The few showers left over the nrn mtns should be
off into NY shortly. There is a convergence zone over wrn PA,
though, where cumulus are congesting and a few showers have
already started to pop up in the aftn heating. The CAMS all
point to a training of very light/low-topped showers just to the
west of JST-FIG-BFD into the evening hours. There could still be
some ltg with the taller cells, but only a few cloud flashes in
Warren Co very recently. SPC still mentions potential for a
weak/low-topped supercell this aftn/evening. So, we can`t look
away for a minute.

As the sun sets, the showers should dwindle. Will keep the high
chc PoPs over the west for the time being, as the upper low
nears and positions itself right over there later tonight. Lack
of forcing across the rest of the area should allow for nil
pops overnight. Some fog is possible, esp in wrn highlands where
any rain this evening and light upslope could keep moisture
high. Will hold off on any mentions for now. Mins of 40-50F will
be mild for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Upper low will be centered right along/over the wrn mountains in
the morning. Flow will probably bring in some lower clouds by
morning. This may limit instability, but the steeper lapse rates
due to the cooler temps aloft will make it easier for showers to
pop up. Will keep on with 40-60 PoPs for the daytime on Easter
Sunday, generally sliding from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect improving conditions/dry wx early next week as high
pressure moves into the area behind departing upper level low.
Look for a nice rebound in temperatures with highs in the 65 to
75 degree range on Tuesday. 80F not out of the question in the
Lower Susquehanna Valley Tuesday afternoon.

There is decent model agreement in the next frontal system
moving into or through the area around midweek. Beyond
Wednesday, guidance shows a large divergence in the evolution of
the boundary and overall precipitation pattern. Trends seem to
lean toward wet vs. dry into the second half of next week but
confidence is low. Temperatures are likely to cool off from
Tuesday`s highs before trending warmer into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep mixed layer tapping the winds aloft and making for many
LLWS reports as the wind gusts into the 20s, and even 30s
locally. Isold SHRA across the north should be into NY by 19Z,
but llvl convergence zone between JST-LBE and just W of BFD
will likely continue to light up with more SHRA and perhaps a
TSRA for the aftn. Loss of heating will allow these to die off,
but perhaps not all at once. Expect the gusty wind to simmer
down after 00Z, with the ern valleys going light/var. Isold SHRA
still poss over the western fringe of our airspace through the
night, but the rest of the area should be dry/VFR. Places that
are still wet at sunset will likely have some fog/low clouds
read:IFR develop tonight. Will only call for that at JST and
BFD - most likely at BFD. The rest of the area is drying out so
nicely that no fog should form even if the dewpoints recover
some overnight.

Upper level low pressure will be centered over JST-BFD at
sunrise, and it will move slowly eastward through the day. Under
the cool pocket aloft, sct SHRA are expected to slide eastward
through the day. Most of the day will be VFR, but any low
clouds/fog will take a bit to burn off in the west considering
the upper low and clouds will be there in the morning.

Sun evening should be the end of any SHRA across the region. A
dry time with no sig wx will follow into Tues under rising
heights/high pressure.

.Outlook...

Mon...AM MVFR cigs psbl N/W.

Tue...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA poss far NW late.

Tues PM...CFROPA, SHRA/TSRA.

Wed-Thurs...Mainly VFR. SHRA poss far S.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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