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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 260259
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will remain off of the east coast
through the upcoming weekend creating a southerly flow of
unseasonably warm air across the Commonwealth.

High amplitude upper level flow is expected to develop early
next week, as a deepening trough forms over the plains and an
upper ridge builds off the east coast.

At the surface, a slow moving, strong cold front is likely push
through Pennsylvania on Tuesday accompanied by showers and
scattered thunderstorms, some of which could contain strong wind
gusts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Watching area of showers associated of what is left of TS Beta
to our south. It will bring in more moisture and a slight
chance of light showers to the SE zones overnight and some of
Saturday. Low level moisture will increase overnight with
southeasterly flow. Expecting low stratus and patchy fog across
the southeast for at least a few hours Saturday morning, a few
areas may even remain cloudy through the afternoon. The rest of
Saturday will be mild and feeling more humid with dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather Sat night and Sunday with temperatures even warmer
topping 80 degrees in many locations. Areas of low clouds may
again be found across the southeast due to low level moisture
and southeasterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Evening update...Overall forecast themes discussed below are
still valid. Warm to start in the period, then turning much
chillier and fall like toward the middle and end of next week.
Unlike the last few weeks, we will finally get into a wetter
pattern with multiple chances of showers, especially from Tuesday
on. Previous discussion below...

The trends for the different ensemble prediction systems are
for a more amplified large-scale pattern next week, with a
building upper ridge axis over western North America, a slowly
progressive and fairly deep upper trough downstream from the
middle of the CONUS up into central Canada, then a corresponding
expansive upper ridge over the western Atlantic.

In general, the above scenario translates to a continuation of
warm, well above normal temperatures across the Commonwealth to
start the work week, followed by a trend towards chilly readings
as the week wears on. The transition period should feature
frequent showers, or perhaps even periods of steady rain,
centered on Tuesday and perhaps into early Wednesday.

As mentioned above, daily highs will remain on the warm side
Monday and Tuesday (mid 70s-lower 80s Monday and mainly in the
70s Tuesday). By the end of the week, maximum temperatures will
lower into the 50s-lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions ongoing will continue through the evening and
into early morning. With an increase in surface moisture, look
for CIGS to lower overnight to MVFR/IFR along with some patchy
fog closer to sunrise Saturday morning. Conditions will slowly
improve Saturday morning from the west though will likely
remain MVFR or below for much of the morning hours and even into
the afternoon in the east.


Outlook...

Sun and Mon...Potential brief restrictions in scattered
showers.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions more likely, with more persistent
showers anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Higher dewpoints the next few days. Not much in the way of
wind. Some chance of showers after today, mainly across the SE
half of the state. The showers will help a little with the dry
conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross/Travis
NEAR TERM...Ross/Travis
SHORT TERM...Ross/Travis
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Travis
AVIATION...Ross/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




Fast Weather Facts and Folklore

AMAZING WEATHER FACT - 1850- Three tropical cyclones impacted New England this season. The remnants of a July hurricane in the Carolinas passed into New England. An August hurricane caused damage in its wake through New England but was probably a tropical storm. Finally, a September hurricane passed off the coast causing some damage.