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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCTP 180852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
452 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

An upper-level disturbance will drift over the region today and
keep our weather unsettled with scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms. A few of the storms that impact the
same locations within a few hour period could result in some
localized minor flooding. Slightly cooler conditions and more
comfortable humidity will move in for the second half of the
upcoming weekend with Monday being the driest day of the next


A slow-moving, positive tilt, mid and upper level trough axis
moving over far wrn PA early this morning will be accompanied
and preceded by a an extensive plume of moderate to high
precipitable water air in the 1.6-2.0 inch range.

Expect to see the regional radar scopes light up with numerous
small clusters of relatively slow moving showers and TSRA that
could bring localized moderate to heavy rainfall amounts of 0.5
to 1.0 inch within an hour - leading to minor flooding in the
form of ponding of water, and perhaps a few small streams
hitting or exceeding bankfull in a few locations. PWAT values
will average in the 40-45 mm range today into this evening.

Afternoon high temps will vary from the L-M 70s across the
northern and western mtns. to the low-mid 80s throughout the
Susq Valley.


After numerous showers and thunderstorms diminish over and to
the east of the Susq Valley this evening, the upper trough axis
(and one or two weak sfc fronts drifting slowly to the SE
across the region) will lead to lingering, mainly scattered
showers across most of the CWA. The anticipated abundance of
clouds again tonight will help to keep min temps 4-6 deg F above
normal - generally in the 65-70F range from the Central Mtns SE
across the Lower Susq Valley. Temps will dip into the much more
comfortable 55-60F range across the northern mtns of PA.


The better day of weekend still appears to be Sunday, as the area
is a bit more stable. However, conditions won`t be pop free, as
some showers and a thunderstorm are possible during the
afternoon hours.

Drier weather on Monday before southerly flow increases with a
return to more showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A real cold
frontal passage is expected, likely on Wednesday, which will
bring drier air and even some lows into the 50s over a large
area for the first time in a long time. Before the frontal
passage look for an increase in thunderstorms. The end of the
week will be drier with temperatures at or a few degrees below
average. Longer term it looks like ridging builds back in for
warmer weather by next weekend.


Scattered rain showers dot central PA early this morning with
the nightly gradual decline to MVFR and IFR. Lower scattered
layers beginning to appear so have inched those sites downward
through the next several hours.

As has been the case for what seems like the entire summer,
conditions will improve through the morning hours with
scattered showers and -TSRA developing by afternoon.

If you`ve been flying across central PA the past few days, you
will find familiarity with today`s forecast and conditions.


Sun- Mon...Mainly VFR, although isold convection possible
mainly south.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions developing with showers and
thunderstorms. Improving later Wed.




NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross/Lambert
AVIATION...La Corte/Tyburski

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania

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