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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 121112
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
712 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will drift south from the Upper
Mississippi River Valley bringing dry weather conditions through
most or all of the upcoming weekend. Chilly nighttime will occur
tonight before temperatures slowly warm into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak mid/upper level thermal trough will drift south across
the region this morning, bringing some areas of stratocu clouds
and no (measurable) precipitation outside of a few sprinkles.

Otherwise, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and
just a light to moderate NW breeze with peak gusts AOB 20 mph in
most places.

A favorable pattern with the northwest flow and efficient/deep
vertical mixing (to between 8-10 KFT AGL) will lead to forecast
sfc dewpoints being below blended guidance.

Max temps will be a few to several degrees warmer than
Tuesday`s and top out in the upper 50s across the Northern and
Western Mtns and will easily reach the mid 60s throughout the
Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Clear skies combined with below normal PWs and winds diminishing
to nearly calm will lead to favorable radiational cooling
conditions tonight into Thursday morning.

Collaborated with neighboring offices to post a Frost Advisory
from 06-12Z Thursday for all of the Northern and Western Mtns
where min temps will settle into the 33-35F range for many
locations with a few of the normally cold spots dipping to 31
or 32F.

This will likely be the coldest morning for quite some time
(likely this coming Autumn), as the cold pattern transitions
toward more a seasonal/warmer regime into late week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly clear and chilly conditions Thur night with min temps
3-4F higher than early Wednesday in most places. Perhaps just
some patchy frost in the higher valleys/perennial cold spots
throughout the Northern and Western Mtns.

NW flow with a pool of cooler than normal air aloft moves
overhead on Friday, and isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
showers will be possible.

Very light winds through the depth of the troposphere and a
lack of sfc fronts will likely mean orographic effects will be a
primary driver of convection initiation. Thus increased PoPs
along the higher terrain of the Laurel Highlands and northern
mountains. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible
again on Saturday and Sunday, though Sunday is trending drier as
heights build and temps warm aloft.

Showers will be possible again for the Mon-Wed timeframe next
week as a warm front sets up across the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty among the
model guidance. Models are coming into better agreement with a
large ridge building over the East Coast for the second half of
next week, eventually pushing warmer weather back into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No big changes to the 12Z TAFS.

525 AM discussion.

As expected, lower CIGS worked into BFD and JST.

Minor adjustments made to the TAFS as of 525 AM.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 06Z TAFS, looking at some MVFR CIGS possible for a
brief time this morning at BFD and JST, as wind shift line
moves southward. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail today
into late week, given very dry air in place.

Winds will pick up by sunrise, given the cold air aloft.
Winds will die down by early evening, as high pressure builds
eastward toward the area. Took LLWS out, given it was
borderline this morning.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR/no sig wx.

Fri-Sun...VFR. A few showers possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record low temperature for Thursday morning (5/13) in State
College is 31 degrees. The mercury will likely fall several
degrees shy of that value.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Colbert/Gutierrez
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Lambert

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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