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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 191119
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Following a spell of oppressive heat, temperatures will return
to more typical early summer warmth with lower humidity. The
risk for showers and thunderstorms will outnumber dry days as
the pattern remains fairly active through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers to start the day across central PA. Rainfall
overnight was locally heavy across parts of south central PA
with MRMS/IRIS 3-6hr precip totals showing a stripe of 1-3
inches from southern Clearfield/Cambria southeast across Blair
and Huntingdon counties. Expect light showers to decrease in
coverage this morning, shifting toward the Mason-Dixon line by
midday. The hires models support the highest POPs over the
southwest Alleghenies into western MD this afternoon, where the
HREF members are unanimous in developing scattered convection
invof the quasi stationary boundary. Need to watch this area
(WPC MRGL to SLGT ERO) for potential FF threat given high PWs
and sufficient instability.

Most locations should anticipate generally improving conditions
from north to south by later today with highest confidence
across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Rain risk/probs should
increase into Wednesday morning across western areas as the next
wave approaches from the OH Valley. Max/min temps will be about
10-15 degrees lower than yesterday with less humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short term/hires model blends generally agree in bringing rain
back into central PA on D2. Increased POPs and lowered maxT. PWs
remain high invof the quasi stationary boundary draped near the
MD line. WPC MRGL/SLGT ERO covers the southern 1/2 of the area
and will mention in HWO. Thursday (D3) looks like a dry day (for
now) as the front gets shunted to the south, allowing high
pressure to briefly take control of the pattern. Thursday night
could get relatively cool with mid-40s fcst across north-central
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure is fcst
to track north from the Midwest through the Great Lakes into
southeastern Canada Fri-Sun. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms
appear probable during this time. High pressure should return
dry weather early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Improving and mainly VFR conditions are expected later this
morning and afternoon, as drier air pushes into the region from
the north. Model soundings suggest MVFR cigs may linger until
mid afternoon over the southwest airfields (KJST and KAOO).

.Outlook...

Wed...PM rain/cig reductions possible southern Pa.

Thu...Early AM rain/cig reductions possible southern Pa.

Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible central mountains.

Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible. Sct PM tsra impacts
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Williamsport tied the record high yesterday of 97 degrees set
in 1994.

Astronomical summer begins Thursday, June 21st at 607 AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner
CLIMATE...

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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