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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


134
FXUS61 KCTP 151127
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
727 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today, reinforcing
the chilly pattern that will continue all week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Meso anal shows a weak warm front south of the border, from
about Parkersburg east into the Shenandoah Valley. A cold front
further west was just entering WRN OH. The frontal system is
embedded in fast SW flow aloft and several weak ripples in the
flow are helping to support disorganized areas of mainly light
rain from KY all the way up into NRN PA.

Broad warm advection on the face of a 40-45kt low level jet
will lift northward accompanied by occasional light rain this
morning as it overruns the warm front south of PA. More general
showers will overspread the area this afternoon as the cold
front moves through the forecast area.

The warm front looks like it will make just enough progress
northward to allow temps to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
over the SERN 1/2 or so of the CWA. Models create some very
modest instability, but right now the confidence in
thunderstorms is too low to warrant mentioning in the forecast.

Overall today looks like a high POP/low QPF scenario.

Models are in good agreement in making the cold front move east
of the forecast area by early evening, bringing an end to the
precipitation. Any lingering showers early tonight should give
way to a dry night from midnight on.

Temperatures will drop down to the chilly mid 30s over the
north, but a gusty WNW wind will preclude widespread frost.
Temperatures will range to the mid 40s over the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks like an almost picture perfect early autumn day.
Partly to mostly sunny skies with a fresh breeze out of the
west. Highs in the 40s and 50s will average 5-10 deg below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming
week as a mean trough sits over eastern North America.

Fair and dry weather will last into Wednesday before a new
reinforcing shot of cool air brings the chance of some lake
enhanced clouds and light showers to our northern zones. A tight
gradient, cold advection and steep low level lapse rates will
support gusty winds Wednesday.

Models track the next surface high south of the area by the end
of the week so other than the weak lake effect, it will be dry
and cool.

The upper trough axis is made to push east by Thursday and
Friday, with increasing warm advection and cloudiness by late
Friday. Showers will be possible Saturday with the approach of
the next shortwave/frontal system. High pressure will build
eastward next Sunday with another shot of chilly and dry weather
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still a few showers across the region as of 7 AM.

A wide range of conditions so far this shift. Expect this
to be the case at least this morning.

12Z TAFS sent.

Poor conditions will prevail today, as milder air works
northward.

Improving conditions late today into tonight, as the cold
front moves east of the area.

.Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/fog possible, mainly W Mtns.

Wed...Low cigs/spotty showers possible northern airspace.

Thu...Low cigs possible north/west becoming VFR.

Fri...VFR conditions as high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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