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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 261129
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
629 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will track overhead this morning. A weak area of
low pressure lifting up the east coast and an upper level
disturbance approaching from the Ohio River Valley tonight into
Saturday will bring wet snow or mixed precipitation, changing to
some rain showers Saturday morning. Light snow accumulations of
mainly an inch or less are expected by sunrise Saturday.

An area of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather for
Saturday afternoon and the first half of Sat night.

Another weak area of low pressure and associated warm front
will bring periods of rain Sunday as it pass just south of
Pennsylvania. Colder temperatures will work into the area at
times early, then late in the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered over Pennsylvania this morning will
result in a mostly sunny skies, mixed with some high clouds
across the south early this morning, and a small area of
stratocu and altocu over the Northcentral Mtns.

Look for another day of gradual snowmelt with light wind,
becoming southeast at 5 to 15 mph later today and tonight.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s to around
40 over the Northern and Western Mountains, to the mid 40s in the
lower elevations of southern Pennsylvania and throughout the
Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The leading edge of wet snow, possibly mixed with rain in the
valleys near and to the south of I-81, will advance NE across
the Southern Tier counties of PA shortly before midnight and
overspread most of the rest of the CWA by 07-08Z Saturday, as
the thermally indirect, LE region of a 115 kt 30o mb jet moves
NE from the Ohio River Valley.

Precip rates could be moderate for brief periods as rather
steep southerly ascent develops along the I-280K theta surface,
thanks to a 30-40kt southerly flow with upstream trajectories
off the Delmarva Coast. In fact, there are a few areas of low
prob for snowfall rates of GRTN 1 inch per hour just to the NE
of the KIPT area late tonight.

Only light snow accumulations are expected at this time.
Generally a coating to less than one inch of snow will fall in
the valleys by daybreak Saturday, with an inch or two possible
on the ridges of Central and Northern PA.

Min temps tonight, around or just prior to the precip onset,
will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Northern and
Western Mtns, and 30 to 35 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday will stay mostly cloudy to cloudy with a few showers
possible during the morning hours. High pressure will build east
over the state Saturday afternoon with some sunshine expected,
at least across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state
and Susq Valley.

It will be notably milder with highs varying from the mid and
upper 40s over the North to the mid 50s in the Southern Valleys.

Another area of low pressure moving northeast up the Ohio River
Valley will bring a widespread light to moderate rainfall Sunday.
The highest rainfall totals of one half of an inch or more will
occur across the southern part of Pennsylvania.

A brief shot of colder air with a northern stream shortwave and
cold front brings some mainly mtn snow showers Monday afternoon
into Tuesday morning, then another southern stream wave
approaches from the Ohio River Valley Wednesday with yet another
bout of light to moderate rain followed by a amplification of a
full latitude trough across the Glakes and Eastern U.S. late in
the week accompanied by snow showers.

Below normal temps likely for Tues and Friday, with gusty NW
winds Monday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conds are expected to continue area-wide today, with
sunshine gradually yielding to increasing high cloudiness from
southwest to northeast by afternoon. Winds will become
south/southeasterly at 5-10 kts, with higher gusts possible in
the Laurel Highlands /JST/.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this evening into
tonight, with a light wintry mix and widespread restrictions
overspreading central PA from south to north. LLWS is expected
to develop as well.

Outlook...

Sat...A light wintry mix changing over to plain rain before
tapering off later in the day.

Sat night-Sun...A brief break in the weather early Sat night
before another round of rain develops from southwest to
northeast and continues into Sunday.

Monday...Lingering showers tapering off.

Tuesday...Generally VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Evanego

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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