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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


827
FXUS61 KCTP 150602
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
202 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will last until a strong frontal system
moves through on Wednesday. Cooler and blustery weather will
follow for the latter half of the work week. The upcoming
weekend looks dry with temperatures moderating to near normal or
even slightly above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Late evening GOES pics indicate patchy low clouds over portions
of Potter and Tioga Counties which continue to0 thin as they
lift to the ENE. Skies are clear elsewhere, and with the high
centered right overhead, we`ll likely see a little fog in the
West Branch and middle Susq River valley. Temps should be
slightly milder than Sun AM, so the frost should not be as
extensive as that morning. Temps should be just a tad high for
widespread frost, so will continue to just mention patchy
as previously.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Any valley fog in the morning will burn off in an hour or two
after sunrise. The wind will stay rather light in the east, but
will start to pick up from the south as the center of the high
moves to our east. A slight jet streak aloft may allow for some
high clouds in the morning, but these should slide NE thru the
morning, and more sun should be had in the aftn. Temps look like
they will work out to be very close to today, despite 8H temps
being a few deg C warmer, as we should only be mixing to about
3kft. Looks like another normal mid-October day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An approaching cold front and thin ribbon of near 1 inch PWATs
will bring a rapid increase in clouds and POPS Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the main impacts in the form or rain showers for
the region on Wednesday. Showers will move east of the area on
Wednesday night with cooler and blustery conditions on Thursday.
As is typical from here going forward, there will be some daily
showers across the northern tier and higher elevations with
northwest flow. After a couple cool days, temperatures will
moderate significantly on Saturday and Sunday before next shot
of more widespread rain arrives by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds under high pressure will promote
valley fog across north-central PA early this morning. KIPT is
most likely to be impacted with LIFR conditions and vis/cig near
airfield mins. Fog will dissipate by 15Z giving way to
widespread VFR. High clouds will increase from the west into
tonight. A moist southeast flow may result in low clouds
developing across central and eastern portions of the airspace
late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

.Outlook...

Wed...A period of rain and reduced cigs/vis likely.

Thu...Gusty WNW winds. AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Sat...AM valley fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Travis
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Travis
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion

Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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