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NWS State College, PA Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS61 KCTP 191827
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
227 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure extending from the Upper Great Lakes to
the Lower Ohio Valley will slide east through midweek. A cold
front will pass through the state by Friday morning, and cause
showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.
Temperatures will be mild over the next few days before the
front goes past.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Any cu around this aftn will dissipate quickly, and leave a
clear sky for a few hours. By midnight, a shortwave trough will
push a band of cirrus in from stage left then exit stage right
in the near-sunrise hours. The wind will become less gusty this
evening, but generally stay up above 5KT all night in most
places. The ridgetops of the Laurels and nrn mtns could hang
above 10KT. The deeper valleys could decouple completely, and
these spots could dip near 40F. m40s are the best call for mins
in most places. The ridge tops may stay AOA 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The mesoscale forcing wanes in the morning, and only some
patchy mid clouds will be around Wed. It will get a little gusty
again on Wed, but we only mix up to about 3-4kft. Layer of very
dry air above the mixed layer could get tapped and drop the
dewpoints sharply in the aftn. Will shade the dew points a
little lower than blended/gridded guid for the time being,
closer to MOS guidance. Maxes will be close to Tues`s numbers in
the S, but will gain 5-8F over the N.

Clouds move in from the west and lower and thicken through the
night Wed night as the Midwestern low pressure enters the Upper
Great Lakes. It should remain dry/no precip into Thurs AM. Temps
sty up in the u40s and l50s again Wed PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday, a cold front will approach the area, providing our
next chance of showers. Thursday should still be a very mild
day, as southwesterly flow advects in warm air ahead of the
front.

Showers will accompany the front from west to east across
Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon and evening, and there should
be enough instability for isolated/embedded thunderstorms into
at least the western highlands. This activity should tend to
diminish as it progresses eastward across the area Thursday
evening.

A return to cooler temperatures is expected Friday into this
weekend as a trough sets up over the eastern United States. A
shortwave rounding the base of the trough Friday night or
Saturday could touch off some rain showers, although the exact
timing of this system remains uncertain.

Upper-level ridging will attempt to build into the Great Lakes
and eventually the northeastern United States early next week.
However, there are some differences in the long-range model`s
handling of energy that comes into the west coast Friday night
which would have ramifications on how quickly the ridging is
able to establish itself over us. Regardless, it looks like we
should see moderating temperatures heading through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clear sky but just a little gusty wind. The strength and
position of the high pressure ridge to our south won`t change
much tonight or Wed. The wind will likely stay up above 5KT
overnight at most locations, with the ridgetops of the Laurels
and northern mountains perhaps staying above 10KT. There is a
strong low level jet developing, but it will be coming from the
NW instead of a more- normal south or southwesterly direction.
The threat for LLWS will develop through the night as the llvl
inversion steepens, and continue into the morning before mixing
starts coincident with the mesoscale forcing sliding to our
east. Cirrus will spread across the state tonight, but exit
stage right in the early morning. VFR will continue Wed, but
clouds from the west will lower and thicken Wed PM.

Outlook...

Thu-Thu night...Restrictions possible late day and overnight in
SHRA/TSRA assocd with cold frontal passage.

Fri-Sat...Lingering MVFR cigs possible, mainly N/W.

Sun...AM valley fog, then --RA poss mainly S.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Dangelo

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion


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Courtesy of the National Weather Service forecast office State College, Pennsylvania




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